In Myanmar, the COVID-19 pandemic and the military takeover have intensified poverty challenges. A UNDP analysis in April 2021 revealed that nearly half of Myanmar’s population could face poverty by early 2022 due to these (COVID-19, Coup D’etat, and Poverty Impact on Myanmar 2021).

This report examines their combined impact on poverty rates, offering insights into individual experiences and providing additional robustness to the findings from the initial report by relying on primary data collected in May-June, 2021.

Reflecting on the results of the People’s Pulse Survey, it reconfirms the likelihood of a rise in poverty headcount to levels not seen since 2005. This erosion of progress effectively diminishes the gains from the remarkable economic growth experienced before the COVID-19 pandemic.

The report notes that a significant amount of money (4.5 percent of pre-COVID-19 GDP) would be needed to bring those newly pushed into poverty back above the poverty line. It also finds that urban poverty is likely to increase threefold, which will have an impact on the overall security of urban areas. It further predicts an anticipated threefold surge in urban poverty, which could affect the overall security of urban regions. The number of people in poverty is likely to remain highest in the poorest states, though it is likely to increase by a higher margin in comparatively wealthier areas, such as Mandalay and Yangon.